Mayor London Breed’s polling numbers are historical. And not in a good way.
As such, they conjure up wretched historical precedents: Her approval ratings remind veteran politicos of Frank Jordan, the last incumbent mayor to be knocked out of office. Her looming re-election campaign is shaping up to be a referendum on the direction of a municipality that much of the nation has been encouraged to believe ought to give needles and feces a place on its city flag. That gets campaign professionals reminiscing about Art Agnos, the incumbent Frank Jordan beat.
These are not favorable references for any politician hoping to remain in politics. Breed, blessedly, is far too smart to jump in the shower with a pair of shock jocks as a campaign stunt a la Jordan — but 2024 is a long ways off and much may yet transpire.
Much already has. And, like that mental image of a nude Jordan literally washing his campaign down the drain in ’95, it has not been pretty.
“All campaign politics comes down to contrasts. London Breed is very good at that,” sums up political consultant Jim Ross, who ran Gavin Newsom’s successful mayoral campaign. “She understands it innately. She wants to create a contrast with whoever she sees as her opponent.”
Breed’s once and future opponent is Supervisor Dean Preston — regardless of what he’s running for or she’s running for and whether he knows it or not. There’s a past here: Preston in 2016 ran a surprisingly close race for supervisor of District 5 against Breed, the sitting Board President at the time, losing by a 52-48 tilt. In 2019 he knocked off her hand-picked successor in District 5, Vallie Brown. In 2020, he did it again. He has also outdone the mayor on a number of key ballot initiatives, including a measure to tax the sellers of properties going for at least $10 million, and the proposition — bitterly opposed by the mayor — that moved the forthcoming mayoral election from this year (when Breed would’ve potentially run unopposed) to next year (when she won’t).
Preston is a wealthy white man who owns an Alamo Square manse and is an ideological lefty. Breed — whose biography plays as large or larger a part in her political career as John McCain’s did in his — is a Black woman who grew up in extreme poverty and chaos in the city’s Western Addition. “I’m a Black woman in San Francisco who has lost a tremendous amount of people in District 5,” she told a reporter in 2012, “and everyone else who is moving into District 5 claims to be the savior of the Black folks there, the families who are there, or the folks who are disenfranchised …”
Put a pin in that bit about saviors.
For a subset of chronically online self-styled polymath tech barons, Preston personifies all that’s wrong in San Francisco. His Democratic Socialists of America colleagues, in reality a relatively small cadre of city leftists, have been recast as San Francisco’s illuminati, with power on par with that of the mayor who dictates the city’s leviathan budget and calls the shots throughout its many departments.
So it behooves Breed to play into this fantasy and stoke the anger that has already spurred a big money campaign to unseat Preston. This is especially the case because she’s the six-year incumbent of a strong mayor city that has seen its lucrative tech-office-tourism business model implode. At the same time, San Francisco has become the national exemplar of the alleged failings of liberal governance. Preston, meanwhile, is one of the 11 supervisors who, after a month of concerted effort, managed to redistribute roughly 0.2 percent of the mayor’s two-year budget.
Whether Breed simply can’t help herself or ripping Preston is a calculated campaign strategy appears to be a distinction without a difference. And, last month, that put the city in a strange and terrible place.
The confrontations between Breed and Preston are often reported in the media as just that — confrontations. This is, too often, done devoid of any analysis of the underlying policy arguments, which is a disservice to the people of San Francisco. It’d be like describing the blow-by-blow at a hockey brawl but failing to report the score and the outcome of the game.
So the racial dressing-down that the mayor on June 13 gave the “white man who’s talking about Black and brown people as if you’re the savior” — well, that got some ink. The underlying issues? Less so. Other than a critical analysis by the Chronicle’s Justin Phillips — the only Black columnist for a major publication in not just San Francisco but, apparently, the entire greater Bay Area and all the way down to Los Angeles — media coverage essentially noted that the mayor and Preston were at it again, and, hey: Hockey brawl.
This is deeply problematic and unfortunate, and reveals massive dysfunction in both the government and our coverage of it. Because it warrants mentioning that Breed’s response to Preston was induced by his asking her if she was going to implement the overdose prevention plan that she tasked her public health professionals to create — and whose work she lauded.
His statements about the ineffectiveness of incarceration and punitive policies — e.g. arresting dope fiends and tossing them into stir, which is what we’re doing — and the disproportionate harm felt by Black, brown and indigenous communities aren’t just his opinion or a political dig. This is the scientific reasoning of the mayor’s own Department of Public Health. The quotes Preston recited are here, in black and white, in the plan both commissioned and approved by Mayor London Nicole Breed.
“It was unfair of her to — and I hate this term — use the race card against Dean Preston. What it did was undermine the Black community being represented by Preston.”
Professor James Lance Taylor
Breed, of late, has been making the pitch that she could be an effective mayor if only she didn’t have to deal with this city’s bureaucracy — and it’s a startling admission: Breed sits atop one of the strongest strong mayor systems in any American city and its bureaucracy by and large works for her. But, more germane to this moment, the mayor cites this city’s relatively strong performance during the Covid crisis as proof of what she’s capable of when unshackled from bureaucracy.
And what did the mayor do then? She followed the advice and direction of her public health professionals.
So the mayor’s rebuke of Preston — “You can quote all these statistics all you want, but at the end of the day, you’ve never lived in it” — would be better directed at her own public health department and their bothersome use of peer-reviewed studies and the scientific method.
“That was unfair. It was unfair for her to use race. Race had nothing to do with this,” says James Lance Taylor, a political science professor at USF and the author of a chapter about Breed in the 2023 book Political Black Girl Magic: The Elections and Governance of Black Female Mayors.
“Dean Preston wasn’t offering his own solutions as an alternative to the mayor’s. He wasn’t acting as a white man. He was acting as an elected official and asking a legitimate question. It was not a personal attack; it was just, ‘Will you follow your own advice on this policy question?’”
Breed’s behavior, Taylor says, jibes with a longtime strategy of “using her ‘I’m-from-here’ advantage.” His book chapter outlines her success in leveraging her status as the city’s “favorite daughter.”
“It was unfair of her to — and I hate this term — use the race card against Dean Preston,” he continues. “What it did was undermine the Black community being represented by Preston. When she threw out that answer to undermine him, she was really undermining District 5.”
Dropping a load on Dean Preston must feel cathartic for the mayor, and it’s red meat for her most ardent supporters. But is it good politics? No political consultant I spoke to thought so.
Preston’s usefulness as a foil is limited by the fact that the vast majority of San Franciscans have no idea who the hell he is or what the hell he does; it’s rare for a district supervisor to exceed 35 percent name recognition citywide. Ross notes that, in recent years, he did polling for a supe’s pet ballot measure, and that supe only tallied 15 percent name recognition.
“He couldn’t believe it! No way! ‘Every time I go out, everybody knows me!’” Ross laughs. “Sorry, man. They don’t.”
There is also the not-insignificant matter of potentially alienating white liberal men in a city that’s lousy with them. And the fact that none of this much impresses the city’s sizable contingent of Asian voters — which is a real concern.
Polling by the pro-Chesa Boudin campaign during last year’s recall found that, among Asian voters, Breed’s numbers were even worse than Boudin’s. What’s more, the only city official who polled worse on crime than Boudin was the mayor. Granted, those are old numbers — but a quick glance out the window reveals that the city is still a long ways from Elysian Fields. And while Breed wasn’t on the ballot last year, she will be next year.
So that’s not good news. That’s bad news. As were the results of a June poll that actually put Breed behind Supervisor Ahsha Safaí — when it’s a good bet that most San Franciscans can’t spell Ahsha Safaí.
Should we count Breed out? Of course not. And not because of her indomitable nature, a walking-on-eggshells city government and press corps that didn’t object to her overt racialization of a colleague’s pertinent policy question or the way she continues to invoke the hardships she surmounted while growing up in District 5, which are still reported on and referenced six years into her tenure as mayor of a deeply troubled city.
Rather, Breed’s salvation could come via ranked-choice voting and the nature of the field that may yet challenge her. In a ranked-choice contest, the mayor could easily coast to victory with 35-odd percent of the first-round vote. And while voters don’t much like Breed, it’s uncertain if, like ousted Chicago mayor Lori Lightfoot, they despise her. This means that San Francisco’s favorite daughter could well pick up her fair share of second- and third-place votes. It will also be a challenge for her contenders to bridge the gap and oust a centrist mayor by cobbling together a coalition of disgruntled leftists and conservatives.
Finally, there’s the fact that 2024 will be a crowded ballot crowned by yet another existential presidential race. Many of Breed’s arguments wither with a moment’s thought — but, for thousands of voters, that may be a moment more than they expend.
The majority of city voters aren’t ideological. Mayor Breed has never been a city progressive but she is a success story who validates how many San Francisco voters — and there are almost no Black voters left here — perceive themselves, and their city: “Electing a native-born Black woman with a Horatio Alger-like personal biography was also an expression of the electorate’s progressive voting,” Taylor writes.
The road to November 2024 promises to be nasty and brutish. Bummer: It won’t be short.
Thank you for your article. As always,I learned new things, even though I try to keep up on City politics, in general. I appreciate your attention the the bureaucracy, and note that it has served members of the political establishment (or “family”) well. The same politicians moving around. It is hugely important, I think, that Chesa Boudin was the one high-ranking City official who was NOT part of that establishment.
We needed him, and thanks to Ranked Choice Voting (RCV), we got him, briefly. As someone who cares about, and works for, better elections – more open, higher turnout, more engaging – I am a strong supporter of RCV. Your note about “first round voters” simplifies and distorts what RCV is really about. It does require voters to pay more attention: that’s hard, but clearly we need educated and participating voters, or we keep getting the same big-name politicians elected, and the same City problems continue. As a voter, it’s my responsibility and privilege to learn about candidates. When I rank 1-2-3, I get more choice. And I don’t have to worry about “wasting my vote,” or being manipulated by the two major parties (neither one likes RCV). I’m voting my conscience, and if my #1 doesn’t get 51%, I definitely want my other choices considered.
Your reporting is great. Please do better with RCV and electoral reform.
Breed’s too much. When she was D5 supe we never saw her west of Divisadero. Dean, by contrast, has met with us three times, two by our request, and the third by his. He’s all over D5 in the community and on MUNI, which is why he won’t be unseated by dark money.
Sorry GD, but the lockdowns and masking were effective in SF. The city had the lowest COVID mortality rate of any major city in the US because people were mindful and followed the advice of public health officials.
As many San Franciscans who care about policy, decision making and elections already know: this Mayor is shrill, petty, foul mouthed and vindictive. She holds a grudge like a seven year old and doesn’t care a fig about solving our beautiful city’s MANY and MOUNTING troubles. Her skill: making powerful podium speeches. Her weakness: legislating and crafting and applying effective policies to improve life for her constituents. She is an ideologue. She is my former D5 supervisor. I mistakenly voted for her once, way back when I bought the “native daughter grandma raised me” story. She has recycled that story ad nauseum over +10 years. When she was our supe and we called her out for failing to meet with us about SFPD foot patrols, public transit, unhoused people, bike lanes, evictions, elder care and low income families, she called us “misogynists” and/or “racists.” I have no idea why she became a public servant because she feigns outrage when you question her actions and decision making. Her most recent budget recommendations were medieval and cruel. Than Goddess people like Supervisor Preston and others had the courage to call her out when she wanted to give any and all funds to SFPD (with no way to hold them accountable) while slashing and gutting life saving services for SF’s most vulnerable…..things like food banks and food security programs, showers and services for TAY and unhoused people, protections and recourse for tenants who are barely hanging on by their dentures. Thank you Mission Local for once again doing a stellar, professional and credible job of pointing out the obscene disconnect between Breed’s speeches, her actions and her failure to lead. She should go become a real estate lobbyist. She plays for the pay.
The Times has been going after Eric Adams for overuse of the race card and exaggerating his beloved anecdotes (plus, caught him in a blatant lie regarding a wallet photo). Breed should take note.
She might as well run against Elvis. She ain’t gonna win. Bye Felicia.
I strongly encourage Joe and his fellow ‘progressives’ to continue waving the flag of the city’s COVID response, wherein criminals were allowed free reign across the city while law-abiding taxpayers were prohibited from doing ANYthing, for two whole years, including long after science had proven things like ‘6ft apart’ and ‘don’t touch that object’ were irrelevant defense against a virus that had aerosolized, all because we ‘listened to the public health experts’ and their ‘data driven’ policies as the exemplar of the quality governance we can expect if the socialists ever assume total power.
Hey, if I haven’t told you before, please stop typing with your face.
JE
I’m voting for Peskin. I don’t really like him, but he at least knows how to get stuff done.
Charlie —
At this point, you’d have to write him in.
JE
“ e.g. arresting dope fiends and tossing them into stir, which is what we’re doing”
My understanding is the city/police is, on first arrest for open air drug use, offering treatment to folks. If declined, they return to the streets, and upon a second arrest, if treatment is declined again, they could face jail time.
You failed to mention this important detail. It’s not just “straight to jail you go.” Be a better journalist.
Come on, man.
Be a better bad-faith commenter.
JE
Her campaign slogan could be “White men, shut up.”
Thank you Joe. When I first read those comments in the Chron I was aghast. Who says that (well, the old school board maybe)? To be fair, she really can’t really run on anything else, which will make her Nixonian law and order campaign as absurd as it is harmful. But of course I’m a white male, so what right do I have to an opinion?
SFDPH does not refer to “the scientific method” or “peer reviewed” studies. Trying to apply these frames to social sciences is bonkers. You can find legitimacy elsewhere, but the type of work they do is nearly unfalsifiable and so dependent on politically motivated grant making bodies that it offers little insight into our current problem. That’s why a lot of it takes the form of sociology and not physics.
For example, one of the best randomized control trails of permanent supportive housing in the recent past was in Santa Clara County, where they found that PSH had no impact on death rates or ER use by homeless people. Has that drawn any attention in the community? Yes — they lauded it as a win for PSH!
You can hate Breed without elevating her opposition to the level of scientists. They’re not.
Dean Preston is consistently on the wrong side of every issue so it’s easy to see why Breed would want to use him as a foil.
I’d vote against Breed if a better candidate comes along. But we haven’t seen that yet. When she won her first term, she beat two better candidates in Mark Leno and Jane Kim. Where are they now? It’s a huge dropoff from them to the current field.
Preston is an easy target. She has no one to run against yet, so why not Preston? It won’t hurt her.