Time, in the post-pandemic world, seems to have warped and coagulated. The past four years feel like so many more; peering back in time feels more and more like trying to stare through a pint of Guinness.
But it was only two years ago, in late 2022, that Mayor London Breed was preaching blood-and-thunder sermons against Proposition H, which would shift citywide elections from odd years, when few vote, to even years, when the city’s turnout is massive.
Turnout for the last several odd-year municipal elections has hovered between 29 and 45 percent. Turnout for the last several even-year municipal elections has fluctuated between 62 and 86 percent. And yet, our mayor described this proposition as a “power grab” by the city’s extreme left.
Dios mio, man. Never before in my many years of political coverage did a statement uttered by an elected official so remind me of the claims of my aging grandfather: That toothpaste companies collude in a vast conspiracy to rip off consumers by clandestinely filling the bottom third of toothpaste tubes with water.
It turns out that it’s hard to argue that vastly expanding the electorate is, in actuality, a boon to political extremists. It was hard to argue against vastly expanding the electorate, period: Prop. H, the brainchild of Supervisor Dean Preston, passed with 71.2 percent of the vote — and became the most significant piece of legislation voters have approved in years.
So, we’ll vote for mayor in November 2024 instead of doing it in November 2023. And it’s easy to see why Breed was displeased: The conventional wisdom in 2022 was that, in 2023, she’d likely win in a walkover. Whereas, by 2024, it figured that significant challengers would emerge. Also, Prop. H provided one more year for things to (inevitably) go sideways and for surly voters to (inevitably?) settle upon another elected official to blame for it. In 2024, additionally, San Francisco will be saddled with an austerity budget, and nearly all the unions will be renegotiating contracts; running for mayor will be a complete mess.
But it didn’t exactly work out that way. Sure, all the stuff about 2024 is true — it’s going to be a mess. But things got messier a hell of a lot quicker than politicos in 2022 figured they would. To borrow the “Anchorman” line, boy, that escalated quickly. It turns out that the vacuous narrative of out-of-control crime and mayhem our mayor and others fanned in 2022 hardly dissipated, even after voters booted DA Chesa Boudin into academia. That’s a big reason why the mayor’s polling numbers last year resembled the trajectory of Cruise’s market valuation.
Boy, that escalated quickly. That really got out of hand fast. It jumped up a notch — it did, didn’t it? To the point: Far from winning in a walkover, it’s difficult to say that Mayor London Breed would’ve won at all in a November 2023 election.
But, lucky for her, she didn’t have to run in one. “She should’ve sent Dean Preston a holiday gift,” quipped a longtime city political operative.
At least for now, Prop. H has saved Breed’s career.
And you can add this to the burgeoning list of initiatives Breed vehemently opposed that passed — and now benefit her. She campaigned emphatically against Proposition C in 2018 — and it has brought in more than $1 billion for homeless and housing programs, and has done yeoman’s work in balancing the budget. She campaigned emphatically against Proposition I in 2020 — and the tax on high-end real estate transactions has since brought in nearly $300 million. Similarly, Breed stumped against Prop. L in 2020, which taxed companies with “overpaid executives.” In its first year, fiscal 2022-23, it brought in a greater-than-anticipated $206 million.
Assemblyman Matt Haney, who got that measure on the ballot, has received no thank-you note from the mayor (nor holiday gift). Nobody has. But the money comes in, and the mayor budgets it. Prop. H is no different: The mayor has been gifted another year to elbow her way back into the city’s good graces and/or convince voters that, far from the six-year incumbent, someone else is to blame for all the city’s woes — and she alone can fix it.
Or, she could continue to crash and burn: Her supporters’ egregious mishandling of a little-seen amateur rap video critical of the mayor was a master class in how to not do political communications. Rule No. 1 is that you do not repeat the negative. But they did, and now many more people have seen the offending video than before — and, to boot, the mayor’s backers have been publicly accused of extortion.
And yet, it would be a mistake to count out Breed. Not just because she’s an indomitable person, but because, leftist “power grab” talk notwithstanding, the landscape created by Prop. H actually favors wealthy candidates — or at least candidates with access to wealth. We wrote as much in 2022, but it’s even more tilted toward establishment politicians than we thought.
For starters, while the electorate a mayoral candidate must court in 2024 will nearly double, the public financing available remains unchanged. That, in itself, presents a serious obstacle for a cash-poor candidate. What’s more, donors are still limited to $500 (the donation limit for a state assemblymember, who serves a bit more than half the people the mayor of San Francisco serves, is $5,500 for the primary, and another $5,500 for the general — and businesses can give directly).
If a mayoral candidate can’t, by some alchemy, induce a massive independent expenditure campaign to be created on their behalf — or they can’t cut themselves a massive check — then they’re facing a crippling disadvantage. And this will be an expensive election: A crowded state ballot likely means that airtime will go at at a premium. A winning mayoral campaign could require dozens of millions of dollars.
So, expect lots of money and plenty of misinformation and a wholly overwhelmed media corps and a general public that, increasingly, doesn’t seem to pay much heed to media reporting or analysis, or much care who’s paying for what — in short, a mess. It’ll also be a mess because of both an influx of new political players of varying degrees of competence, and a potential exodus of some of this city’s sharpest political operators.
Perhaps you missed it, but 2024 is setting up to be yet another epochal presidential election. And San Francisco’s mayoral election won’t receive top billing, even in San Francisco. Before voters wading through the city’s crowded ballot even get to mayor, they’ll at least have to check the boxes next to president, Senate, Congress, state senate and state assembly. That may well take them onto the second page.
Considering what’s at stake in this election, some of this city’s political movers and shakers — and ground-level doers and labor unions — may be off working on the front-page material; they’ll be knocking doors in Reno instead of in the Richmond. This, too, will contribute to a municipal mess: More money, more distractions and fewer experienced hands on the tiller.
Time may have warped and coagulated, but November’s election will be here sooner than you know. It always is. And just think: In only a little while, these will be the good ol’ days.
Mayor Breed apparently had both the will & power to clean up the city when the world’s elite came to visit but can’t be bothered when it’s just us lowly peasants who live here. Unfortunately, we’re unlikely to see any improvement with any of the other announced candidates but it would be wise to throw her out just to remind the crooks & ideologues who’s in charge.
Your resentments and grievances about “us lowly peasants” is a concocted myth. Only a few square blocks of the City was “cleaned up” during the APEC summit. Most of the people relocated or barred from those few block simply moved temporarily to nearby places. So in reality what you want is the kind of “clean up” that happened for the “elite” that just moves people to where you personally no longer see or encounter them. But like your despised “elite” you’ve no concern or regard at all for the people who live in the nearby places where those relocated people go.
London Breed is corrupt. Under her the Feds arrested people some that she appointed. She has had heads of commissions sign resignation notices in case she doesn’t like the way they vote. And to see all of these tech money people go after Preston, who has championed for tenants rights before he was a Supervisor, tells me all I need to know.
Joe, I cannot agree more. The only thing I’m not so sure about is whether or not she would have lost had we held a mayoral election in 2023. Mostly likely, we would have had the same conservative candidates running against her in 2023 just as we have now in 2024. The reality is that this city has become a hotbed for conservative politics for a long, long time. The last time San Francisco elected a semi-progressive candidate was decades ago and this will never happen again in today’s climate with the richer-than-god demographics we’re stuck with.
Regardless of rank choice voting, the option will always be between one “compassionate conservative” and another “competent conservative”. And with 3 right-wing candidates running for office, there’s always a chance for London Breed to make the 3rd choice and hence, waltzing to victory.
Having said that, I don’t view this as a fault of the rank choice voting. If the majority voters are conservative, there will be no room for progressives to run. The fault is with us the people and not the rank choice voting system.
I intend to write in Aaron Peskin as my choice for the mayor even if he doesn’t run for office.
Ozzie,
What are Aaron’s major accomplishments in 16 years, at least half as President of the San Francisco Board of Supervisors ??
He’s a good guy and I like him …
However,
he seems to hate listening to the Public.
His latest was killing Phone-in Public Comment everywhere he was ableand as Board President his efforts have killed the lengendary ‘My Three Minutes’ (someone titled a play) is pretty much all gone and I’ve seen Commission chairs give ONE minute to speakers in person when there was only a single person in the audience.
It began when his Prop A got rid of the Taxi Commission.
Then, he got rid of the Taxi’s.
And, for 20 years no Parrot from Telegraph Hill was safe around him.
Gimme Gonzalez or gimme Lurie.
You don’t understand the logic of ranked choice voting. In a three candidate ranked choice race, voters’ third ranked choices will not be counted.
Thanks for reminding me of this. Ugh. didn’t she also support the right wing Bloomberg in the primary?
I don’t think I ever voted for LB…(London Breed always sounded more like a brand than a person), and I won’t be voting for her again either. The only way I’d vote for Mayor Breed(trade mark r) is if tRump runs against her. She shapes her politics like a Republican strategist…for short-term effect. For example, there is a service group in the City which will go unnamed, but the eventual outcome of their policies will be to recommend that their children go to prison in order to get a good job when they grow up. You connect the dots.
Rich people bonus taxes have to be at the federal level or they will move with their businesses out of SF, mayby to another state like TX. Net revenue loss for SF and CA.
late to the conversation, obviously; but I question whether 100 un-informed ppl making a choice is better than 50 informed ppl.
If voters can’t get off their duff – and give the postal carrier they ballot – every year to make a choice, one has to wonder about what we’re all doing anyway. But don’t worry; politicians have adapted by seemingly being smooth, ‘knowledgeable’, and “concerned” – and then doing things their own way.
Not to mention the ‘musical chairs’ aspect of this whole game.
Admittedly, its slightly better than a tRump/Putin-style govmint, where as soon as they disobey their masters, its a ‘heart-attack’ from Big Macs or a skin-contact poison
Encouraging larger numbers of voters to turn out for elections does tend to favor the extremes. But it does so for both sides. In the end, Chicken John and Broke-Ass Stuart never cracked a dozen
Sean,
I ran for Mayor myself.
Supervisor in, I think, 5 districts.
School Board
Pulled papers for Sheriff
You’ll find that most ‘perennial candidates’ have issues that are important to them that they want to present to a larger platform.
I never spent a dime on an election campaign and my friends paid for my $500 entry fees for supe and I got to stand on stage in front of thousands and push everything from Tidal Energy to and Elected Police Chief.
Sometimes you have to be willing to look like an idiot to ignorant friends.
Go Niners !!
Joe says, ” And just think: In only a little while, these will be the good ol’ days. ”
The sooner, the better.
I met Mayor Breed several years ago at a barbecue in Golden Gate park and discussed with her the ability to govern a city filled with mental retards. Even today, Mayor Breed goes forward and tries to do her best at all times. She can appoint people to commissions based on recommendations from other people and not know them quite well. If they turn out to be criminals or dishonest that is not the fault of the Mayor. Anybody who takes that job has to have a thick skin otherwise they would collapse under the weight of the lunatic, dishonest, criminal fringe in San Francisco.
Perhaps if Mr. Trump comes back to the White House he will have the sense to pull Mayor Breed from city hall to Washington D.C. and have a good woman on his cabinet.
Joe,
You insulted me about the Voting Machines vulnerability for hackers then ran away.
From my simple question …
Do you believe that it would be better for your vote to be counted by an Open Source Algorithm or by a Proprietary Algorithm?
We’ve hit this exact roadblock before if you remember cause I do.
There is nothing more important in a Democracy than one’s vote.
The way our pattern runs is that you defend the established system when I challenge it and when I ask you if the present Proprietary counting is superior to Open Source you bail and the thread ends.
Just answer.
Please.
h.
H. —
I like you a lot, as you know, and I appreciate your comments here and will do my best to come to your 80th birthday. But your statements about open-source voting are deeply misinformed:
https://missionlocal.org/2022/11/elections-director-john-arntzs-contract-not-renewed-by-elections-commission/
JE
Thanks Joe. For your comments on this election mess. We are rushing into 2024 with eyes wide open stepping into a dark void where what we know or think we do is hard to determine. Facts are becoming out of reach amorphous distant clouds and we have lost all sense of gravity. Not if but when will the balloon we are floating on pop?
Zrants,
Wasn’t it Yeats who said …
“the Center will not hold”
My favorite …
“I’ve been to the lowlands where tigers question jaguars about their teeth,
and never forget the Moral that I trace … this World is a dangerous place.”
Whoo, whoo (wait, that’s Halloween, right?) ..
Not as bad as Fox News or Desantis put it, but SF is still a mess, many businesses still getting robbed, homeless issues just won’t go away, unless housing becomes affordable, and the city stop encouraging/allowing more to show up to SF to be bums (not myth, I’ve talked to some myself) Also London Breed supporting her criminal brother shows just how much integrity she has.
SF needs a better candidate that will do more than offer a lip service.
Also please get that abomination, Musk out of SF. We don’t need dead weigh billionaires that don’t contribute, that supports fascism, that abuses the law however he wants. Let him pack up for Texas.
Joe,
It doesn’t really matter how you vote if the Dominion Machines with a Secret Proprietary Vote Counting Algorithm remains in place.
DOE boss, John Arntz has blocked Open Source Voting for 20 years.
And, he’s a hero to the City Family.
That aside, I’ll work hard for a candidate or issue or three and Vote Anyway.
Will Lurie run a Negative campaign ?
Will London ‘Take Down That Wall !!’ around the Armory ?
Nah, H. That’s bullshit.
What are your thoughts about the toothpaste, though?
JE
Joe,
If I didn’t have a thicker skin your often baseless insults might hurt me.
You’re amongst the media group that circled the wagons around Arntz last year and have always ignored the dangers of Proprietary Algorithms.
I don’t say that any election anywhere in history was rigged.
I’m just noting that it is possible due to the equipment and programs they are using in voting machines in my backyard.
Are you saying here in front of all of your readers that Open Source Vote Counting Systems are not superior to Proprietary systems ?
On the toothpaste, having dentures I don’t use it much.
However, I think the lozanges in pack of fizzy soak have some counterfeits.
How does one check on that ?